ENTSO-E’s Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF) 2013-2030, released on 3 April 2013 shows that, under the European TSOs’ best estimates of the load and generation evolution, generation adequacy will be maintained in 2020.
The Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF) methodology, refined over decades, assesses expected developments for load and installed generation capacity, taking into account unavailabilities such as generation maintenance and outages and renewable energy reliability.
The SO&AF 2013-2030 data are forecast and analysed for three different 2020 Scenarios and the two new 2030 Visions. The ensuing results give indications on which countries or European regions will be likely to depend on imports for their security of supply.
The SO&AF 2013 contains quantitative data on two Visions for 2030, providing a bridge between the EU energy targets in 2020 and 2050. Vision 1 (“Slow Progress”) and Vision 3 (“Green Transition”) are based on distinctively different assumptions; together with Visions 2 (“Money Rules”) and 4 (“Green Revolution”) they aim to provide the boundaries within which the actual future evolution of the system is expected to lie. The last two Visions will be quantified in SO&AF 2014 as part of the TYNDP 2014 package.
Based on the “Best Estimate” Scenario, the SO&AF 2013 indicates that generation adequacy is expected to be maintained during the entire forecasted period until 2020, even after the expected shut down of German (and Swiss and Belgian) nuclear power plants. However, considering only confirmed generation investments, the level of adequacy becomes slightly negative – this may be further exacerbated by the impact of market conditions on existing generation.