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Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2012-2030

On 5 July 2012 ENTSO-E released the Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF) 2012- 2030 as part of the TYNDP 2012 package and in compliance of Regulation (EC) 714/2009. The public consultation lasted for 8 weeks and closed on 26 April. ENTSO-E’s SO&AF 2012- 2030 assesses the future system adequacy at a mid-to long-term time horizon. The SO&AF builds on ENTSO-E’s System Adequacy Forecast and, prior to that, on UCTE’s System Adequacy Forecast and ETSO’s Power System Adequacy.

The report analyses the adequacy of the ENTSO-E power system by providing an overview of generation adequacy analyses for all of ENTSO-E, its regions as well as for individual countries, including an assessment of the role of the transmission capacities and security of supply on a regional basis. The report sets three scenarios for generation and demand: the scenario “EU2020” derives from the National Renewable Action Plans3 (NREAP) in compliance with the European 20/20/20 objectives, scenario B (“Best Estimate”) is based on the expectations of TSOs and scenario A (“Conservative”) derives from scenario B with the secure generating capacity only. In addition, the SO&AF 2012 describes the “Visions” for the year 2030, which are presented from an illustrative perspective in order to examine the challenges and opportunities for TSOs development of longer term scenarios and in accordance with the EU Energy Roadmap 2050. The visions presented in the SO&AF 2012 will in fact provide a bridge between the EU energy targets in 2020 and the year 2050.

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Used in data-driven application NO
Category Outlooks
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